von Ugo Bardi, April 2016
Hier ein einfaches Modell, das den Übergang von einer komplexen Gesellschaft von einer Strategie die in erster Linie basierend auf der Nutzung neuer Ressourcen auf der Grundlage von Diebstahl von Ressourcen von denen, die sie bereits haben. Das Modell basiert auf dem bekannten "Füchse und Kaninchen" Modell; wo wir davon ausgehen, dass Füchse die Räuber und Kaninchen die Beute sind. Hier untersuchen wir nur einen einzigen Zyklus des Modells; unter der Annahme, dass Kaninchen sich zu langsam reproduzieren um einen Unterschied zu machen.
Für weitere Informationen darüber, wie dieses Modell funktioniert und wie kann es bei dieser Arbeit von mir historische Daten zu passen, werfen Sie einen Blick auf dieses Papier.
Um den Phasenübergang beschreiben, ich nehme hier an, dass einige Füchse Kannibalen werden können und andere Füchse fressen. Diese Kannibalischen Füchse können eine Doppelstrategie verwenden, wenn Kaninchen reichlich vorhanden sind, werden sie Kaninchen essen, aber wenn sie nicht vorhanden sind, werden sie andere Füchse essen, vor allem wenn diese sehr reichlich vorhanden sind. Hier ist das Modell implementiert, die Standard-Konventionen der Systemdynamik und den von "Vensim" Software.
Und hier sind einige Ergebnisse des Modells, die Entwicklung der Populationen der regulären Füchse und die der Kannibale zeigen:
Sie können sehen, wie die Kannibalen Füchse als "Parasit" der regulären Füchse wachsen, so dass ihre Bevölkerung schneller zusammenbricht, als es ohne die Kannibalen getan hätte. Es ist ein weiteres Beispiel für die "Seneca Collapse".
Das ist natürlich ein sehr einfaches Modell, aber ich denke, es ist der Grundmechanismus der den Zusammenbruch der Gesellschaft vermittelt. Dieser Abbau erfolgt nicht, wenn die Gesellschaft tatsächlich aus irgendetwas läuft, aber viel früher. Das scheint zu sein, was uns passiert und Donald Trump ist nur ein Symptom für die Änderung.
In this post, I argue that the ascent of Donald Trump in the US presidential race is a symptom of the ongoing breakdown of society, in turn caused by the loss of control generated by resource depletion. At the bottom of this post, you'll find a simple system dynamics model describing the situation and generating another example of "Seneca Collapse"
Donald Trump seems to have taken everyone by surprise. Whether or not he gains the Republican nomination, and whether or not he becomes president, he took the media by storm: people writing on blogs and newspapers are reeling from the impact, asking themselves: where the heck did this come from? What is he? A God? The reincarnation ofHitler? Or of Mussolini? The devil? Or what? Personally, I don't claim to have been less surprised than most by Trump but, rethinking about the situation, I think it is reasonable to say that something like Trump was unavoidable. He is, really, best defined as the visible effect of the ongoing social phase transition. A discrete change in our path in the direction of collapse.
For a good number of years, I have been studying the reasons for the collapse of societies. And, at the beginning, I tended to explain it as mainly the result of the depletion of crucial resources; crude oil, in our case. But, the more I think about that, the more I understand that the relation between depletion and collapse is far from being straightforward. A society can very well collapse without running out of anything; think of the case of the Soviet Union. When it collapsed, the Union had still plenty of mineral resources, but it couldn't find a way to exploit them in a convenient manner. In the case of the Roman Empire, also, there is no evidence that it run out of food or of any basic resource. Rather, it ran out of the resource it used for paying its troops, gold and silver for its currency. In both cases, it was a question of the collapse of control. As we all know, power without control is nothing.
Note that the loss of control is related to resource depletion, but the relation is not direct. It works like this: any complex society can exist only in certain conditions: it is not enough to have access to natural resources. It is necessary to be able to distribute these resources in such a way to keep all the sections of society supplied; this is a question of control. You can also use the term "governance" if you like to avoid a term that has a military ring to it. The point is that if a society is unable to allocate the a resources in such a way to make most people accept the way they are allocated, it will break down, or collapse, or both things.
In our world, resource allocation is controlled by the entity we call "the market", with some correction on the part of another entity that we call "the government". Generally speaking, the government is supposed to correct for the fact that the market is not supposed to provide a fair distribution of wealth. For instance, the government is supposed to provide health care services even to people who can't afford it. This is why taxes are progressive (or used to be, before president Trump took office). This is what we normally call democracy: it works on the shared belief that society is kept together by a certain degree of fair sharing of the available resources.
It works, but only in some conditions. In particular, it works under the assumption that the available resources are relatively abundant. If that's the case, it is more convenient to create new wealth by exploiting some untapped resource than to steal wealth from others who already have it. But that's not always the case. Lets'imagine that you are out of your job. In normal conditions, you look for another job. But if there are no jobs available, or you are too old to get a new job, your only possible survival strategy is theft or robbery (it is happening). Then, if those Arabs are sitting on our oil, then it makes sense to bomb them to smithereens and get it. And why should the poor get our money fortheir health problems?
Note that you don't need to run out of anything to cross the critical point. Within some limits, you may assume that the cost of exploiting a natural resource goes up with the inverse of the resource abundance while the cost of stealing it from someone who has it may be taken as approximately constant. So, there has got to be a point where stealing becomes a better strategy than finding new resources. It is a phase transition in society (see the model, below). At this point, society goes to a crisis that leads it either by some form of breakdown, including "ethnic cleansing," or to some kind of centralized military control. The second outcome can be said to be better than the first. That's what the Romans did when it moved from a republic to an Imperial system. That's the path in front of us.
If we see the situation in these terms, then Trump is, really, nothing unexpected. He is a symptom of the ongoing breakdown of the social pact in the US and all over the West. Indeed, he is capitalizing on this breakdown by using his aggressive rhetoric, playing on the attempt of the white (former) middle class to maintain at least some of its previous prosperity and privileges. Trump is not (yet) an emperor and probably he'll never be one. But he is a step in that direction; an unavoidable consequence of resource depletion.
When the first barrel of oil was extracted from underground in 1859, it might have been possible to imagine that depletion would cause big problems, at some moment in the future. It would have been impossible to imagine that, one century and a half later, it would lead to a presidential candidate with carrot-colored hair whose motto could be "we shall overcomb." But so is the future: it always surprises you.
Cannibal foxes and the Seneca Collapse
by Ugo Bardi, April 2016
Here is a simple model that explains the transition of a complex society from a strategy mainly based on exploiting new resources to one based on the theft of resources from those who have them already. The model is based on the well known "Foxes and Rabbits" model; where we assume that foxes are the predator and rabbits the prey. Here, we examine only a single cycle of the model; assuming that rabbits reproduce too slowly to make a difference. For more details on how this model works and how it can be used to fit historical data, take a look at this paper of mine.
To describe the phase transition, I assume here that some foxes can become cannibals and eat other foxes. These cannibal foxes can use a double strategy, if rabbits are abundant, they will eat rabbits, but if they are not, they will eat other foxes, especially if the latter are very abundant. Here is the model, implemented using the standard conventions of system dynamics and the "Vensim" software.
And here are some results of the model, showing the evolution of the populations of the regular foxes and of the cannibal ones
You can see how the cannibal foxes grow as a "parasite" of the regular foxes, causing their population to collapse more rapidly than it would have done without the cannibals. It is another example of the "Seneca Collapse".
This is, of course, a very simple model, but I think it conveys the basic mechanism of the breakdown of society. This breakdown occurs not when society actually runs out of anything, but much earlier. That seems to be what's happening to us and Donald Trump is just a symptom of the change.